Generalizing Jeffrey Conditionalization

نویسنده

  • Carl G. Wagner
چکیده

Jeffrey's rule has been generalized by Wagner to the case in which new evidence bounds the possible revisions of a prior probability below by a Dempsterian lower probability. Classical probability kinematics arises within this gen­ eralization as the special case in which the evidentiary focal elements of the bounding lower probability are pairwise disjoint. We discuss a twofold extension of this general­ ization, first allowing the lower bound to be any two-monotone capacity and then allow­ ing the prior to be a lower envelope.

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

منابع مشابه

Theoretical Omniscience: Old Evidence or New Theory

I will show that, in the Problem of Old Evidence, unless a rational agent has a property I will call theoretical omniscience (a stronger version of logical omniscience), a problem with non-commutativity of the learning theories follows. Therefore, scientists, when trying to behave as close to rationality as possible, should behave in a way close to the counterfactual strategy. The concept of th...

متن کامل

Probability, rational belief and belief change

A simple model of rational belief holds that: (i) an instantaneous snapshot of an ideally rational belief system corresponds to a probability distribution; and (ii) rational belief change occurs by Bayesian conditionalization. But a priori probability distributions of the Kolmogorov sort cannot distinguish between propositions that are simply true from propositions that are necessarily true. Fu...

متن کامل

Generalized Probability Kinematics

Jeffrey conditionalization is generalized to the case in which new evidence bounds the possible revisions of a prior below by a Dempsterian lower probability. Classical probability kinematics arises within this generalization as the special case in which the evidentiary focal elements of the bounding lower probability are pairwise

متن کامل

How to Revise Ranked Probabilities

In this paper, we introduce and discuss a new framework for the modeling and revision of probabilistic belief. The epistemic states encode degrees of belief topped by second-order uncertainty using special Spohn-type ranking measures over subjective probability distributions. The revision strategy, which handles incoming information translated into linear probability constraints, is based on va...

متن کامل

Justifying conditionalization: Conditionalization maximizes expected epistemic utility

According to Bayesian epistemology, the epistemically rational agent updates her beliefs by conditionalization: that is, her posterior subjective probability after taking account of evidence X, pnew, is to be set equal to her prior conditional probability pold(·/X). Bayesians can be challenged to provide a justification for their claim that conditionalization is recommended by rationality — whe...

متن کامل

ذخیره در منابع من


  با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید

برای دانلود متن کامل این مقاله و بیش از 32 میلیون مقاله دیگر ابتدا ثبت نام کنید

ثبت نام

اگر عضو سایت هستید لطفا وارد حساب کاربری خود شوید

عنوان ژورنال:

دوره   شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 1992